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Which Way to Turn?

With 74 percent of Americans thinking the economy is in a recession, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released yesterday, and Bear Stearns recently finding out just how bearish the market has become, any company that wasn't already seriously reassessing its strategy is doubtless doing so today. Not everyone's running up the white flag, however, as I found out at last week's Digital Hollywood Media Summit.

CBS Corporation president/CEO Les Moonves wasn't talking bears in the Summit's March 13 opening session. In fact, he was talking bulls, saying that advertisers focusing on 18-to-34-year-old upscale viewers are targeting "a bull[bleep] category."

"There are no upscale 18- to 34-year olds -- except my children," Moonves averred. "And they have to ask me for money."

Moonves also had little time for those who believe older consumers have already made their brand choices, saying that stance was an old wives' tale.

And while he did acknowledge that the economy's in a slowdown -- no fool, he -- Moonves maintained that CBS was sailing full speed ahead, projecting its online ad revenue would continue to grow at an annual rate of 40 percent, through at least 2008.

Lest we think the Eye Network honcho's being too hyperopiac for his own good, consider that the previous day's keynoter, Walt Disney Co. president/CEO Bob Iger, said much the same thing. Disney is in the business of projecting, rather than protecting, its brand, he said (news indeed for the legions of folks who've found themselves on the wrong end of a Disney-filed copyright infringement action), and will continue to reap the benefits of digital revenues.

What kind of benefits? Iger said the Mouse House's digital revenues would grow from $750 million to $1 billion this year. β€œIn terms of total revenue, you could say that number is still pretty low, given this is a $35 billion company,” he remarked, going on to say that social media is trending down, age-wise: "Younger kids are using broadband. The broadband-enabled computer will become a major vehicle for entertainment for us.”

Two themes emerged from these presentations that I think are key for the 1to1 audience. One is that, despite the clouds of doom on the economic horizon, neither Disney nor CBS is sounding the retreat on continuing to find new and innovative ways of reaching their customers (at least, not publicly). Both firms admittedly have deeper pockets than most, but to suggest that they're simply throwing money away would, I believe, be a mistake.

The second point -- and one that's been made in our pages many times before -- is that you can't stand still when it comes to your customers. Feeling you know exactly what your customers want and need based exclusively on what they've done in the past is a path to failure, or, in Moonves' deathless eloquence, "bull[bleep]." Moonves, Iger, and others like them give the impression that they're always moving ahead, keeping close tabs on what their customers want, and adopting -- rather than fearing -- new technological developments.

"We're not embracing technology," Iger declared. "We're embracing consumers -- who are the ones using the technology."

Rolling the dice on new digital initiatives -- or sticking by them when not seeing an immediate return -- is admittedly a daunting prospect at even the best of economic times. Nevertheless, if one heeds the words of men who can effectively shrug off a billion-dollar revenue stream, it seems plain that it's still a risk worth taking.

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