Predicting Politics
Despite various national polls showing double-digit leads for Barack Obama, we awake (and, one hopes, vote) today not really knowing for sure who our next president will be. Part of this is due to the television news media's wanting maximum viewers tonight, of course, but there's also the desire to avoid the unsettling spectre of another "Dewey Defeats Truman" debacle.
While predictive analytics from firms like SPSS -- whose senior vice president, market strategy Colin Shearer told me not long ago was "absolutely" looking at the Obama/McCain question -- are nothing to sneeze at, they don't capture the imagination like Halloween masks and Baskin-Robbins ice cream can.
Yep, as John Mellencamp would put it: this is ourrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr country.
Nobody wants to be wrong, of course, but when it comes to predicting politics, the stakes are a bit higher than normal. And while Dewey defeating Truman may be the most famous erroneous call in American politics, it's hardly the only one: the Washington Post went to press in 1980 with the news that former President Gerald "Ford reportedly accepts No. 2 spot on GOP ticket" in support of Ronald Reagan, while the New York Post famously screamed on its front page four years ago that John Kerry had picked Dick Gephardt as his running mate. (And of course who could forget the major networks' calling Florida for Al Gore in 2000?)
Exit polls, phone polls, ten-foot poles ... all these can safely be rejected when trying to predict who the next president will be. Instead, try focusing on these:
The Washington Redskins Poll
Under this scenario, when the Redskins win its final home game before the general election, the incumbent party wins the election, in every election since 1936 ... except for 2004, when the 'Skins lost 28-24 and Kerry failed to be elected. Still, that's a 94.4 percent accuracy rate. And with the Steelers' commanding 23-6 victory last night, Obama and the Democrats may be on the outside looking in yet again.
The Halloween Masks Poll
Under this one, the more people who buy a particular candidate's mask, the greater the chance that candidate will win the election. Mask-maker Spirit Halloween claims this methodology worked over the past three elections: George W. Bush 65 percent, Kerry 35 percent in 2004; Bush 57, Gore 43 in 2000; Bill Clinton 71, Bob Dole 29 in 1996. This year Obama far outpaced McCain, 67 to 33, but the potentially damaging effect of popular Sarah Palin masks -- which cost McCain some support (just like in real life!) -- remains unknown.
The 7-Eleven Cups Poll
The convenience store chain has sold Republican red and Democratic blue 20-ounce coffee cups featuring the candidates' names since the 2000 election, and sales successfully predicted Bush's win both times, according to its website. Obama cups are outpacing McCain cups by a 3 to 2 margin, which means that while Joe the Plumber and Joe Six-Pack may prefer the GOP, the Cuppa Joe devotees are saying "Gobama."
The Stock Market Poll
To the surprise of no one who isn't named Herbert Hoover, a down market has predicted bad times for the incumbent party. With all those 401(k)'s going 401(kaput), McCain can probably look forward to hitting the links early next year.
The Baskin-Robbins Poll
With some 500,000 votes, the ice-cream vendor found the Obama-associated "Whirl of Change" flavor edging the McCain-esque "Straight Talk Crunch" by a 51-49 margin.
So have the voters indeed made their choices, via coffee, ice cream, masks, and the fortunes of a 6-3 football team? Does Obama have it in the bag?
Perhaps. But let us not forget the results of...
The KFC Poll
The fried-chicken purveyor has reportedly sold several hundred election-related T-shirts, with 41 percent choosing "Left Wing" versus 29 percent taking "Right Wing." But 30 percent of buyers went with "Right Wing, Left Wing: Tastes the Same to Me," which throws all kinds of flies into the predictive chicken batter ointment.
The only safe prediction, it seems, is that the American people will be highly relieved once this thing is over.
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