So far, the downturn we are encountering looks like a recession. It may be one of the more severe recessions in the last 50 years or so, but it's still only a recession, and not even close to turning into a genuine "depression," if you define that as a 10 percent or greater decline in GNP.
We should all remember, however, that economic downturns are entirely natural events, and you can't prevent them any more than you can prevent ocean waves, or thunderstorms. The global economic system is a highly complex, path-dependent system of interacting forces. In fact, in the aggregate the economy performs very much like the weather, and will always generate unpredictable results. No one has ever successfully predicted economic cycles consistently, and no one ever will -- ever. This is because the better we get at predicting them, the more opportunities we create for imaginative investors to arbitrage those predictions away with their own investments.
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